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經濟學人:全球貿易—潦而不倒(1)

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In Quentin Tarantino's "Kill Bill: Volume 2", an action drama, the protagonist, played by Uma Thurman, punches her way out of a coffin.

在昆汀·塔倫蒂諾的動作片《殺死比爾2》中,由烏瑪·瑟曼飾演的主角打破棺材而出。
Global trade in goods has performed a similar death-defying stunt during the covid-19 pandemic.
在新冠疫情期間,全球貨物貿易也上演了類似的驚人之舉。
In April things looked dismal. Some predicted global trade would slump by more than 30% this year, compared with 2019.
在四月,情況看起來很糟糕。一些人預測,與2019年相比,今年全球貿易將驟降超過30%。
But after a gut-wrenching spring, trade volumes recorded their biggest monthly rise on record in June, the last month of available data.
但在極度痛苦的春天過后,6月份貿易額出現了有記錄以來最大的單月增幅(六月是有數據可查的最后一個月)
Oxford Economics, a consultancy, predicts that in 2020 as a whole volumes may drop by 10%.
咨詢機構牛津經濟研究院預測,2020年整體貿易額可能下跌10%。
This resilience has defied recent experience, as well as expectations.
這種回彈與最近的經歷和預期都背道而馳。
In 2009, when global GDP fell by 0.1% in the final year of the financial crisis, trade plunged by a whopping 13%.
2009年,全球GDP在金融危機的最后一年下跌0.1%,而貿易則大幅下降了13%。
This year the IMF forecasts that global GDP could fall by 4.9%, ie, 50 times more than in 2009. So why will the hit to trade probably be smaller?
今年,IMF預計全球GDP可能下跌4.9%,即是2009年的50倍。所以為什么對貿易的沖擊可能會更小呢?

全球貿易—潦而不倒(1)

After the financial crisis trade volumes fell much further than GDP mostly

金融危機后,貿易額的降幅遠遠超過了GDP
because people stopped buying heavily traded durable goods, such as cars.
因為人們不再購買汽車等大量交易的耐用品。
But in the current crisis, untraded domestic services have been harder hit than they were back then.
但在目前的危機中,非貿易國內服務業受到的沖擊比當時更大。
Going to the cinema or a restaurant halted during lockdown.
在封鎖期間,不能去電影院或餐廳。
Buying an imported fridge did not. That has made the drop in trade relative to GDP smaller.
但仍可以購買進口冰箱。這使得貿易相對于GDP的下降幅度有所減小。
Moreover, the robustness of the world's production apparatus has underpinned trade flows.
此外,世界生產設備的強健支撐了貿易流動。
Covid-19 froze supply chains, but in Asia at least they swiftly started to thaw.
新冠疫情凍結了供應鏈,但至少在亞洲,供應鏈迅速開始解凍。
According to Simon Evenett of the University of St Gallen in Switzerland,
根據瑞士圣加侖大學的Simon Evenett,
the number of trade restrictions applied on medical goods and medicine since the start of the crisis peaked in April,
自危機開始以來,對醫療產品和藥品實施的貿易限制量在4月份達到峰值,
and has since fallen by 15%. Even more importantly, lockdowns were lifted more quickly than expected,
此后下降了15%。更重要的是,封鎖解除的比預期快,
allowing exporting powerhouses like China and Germany to reopen factories and boost output.
這讓像中國和德國這樣的出口大國能夠重開工廠,提高產量。
Pandemic-induced demand gave trade in some products extra pep.
疫情導致的需求給某些產品的貿易帶來了額外的刺激。
America's imports of protective equipment tripled between March and July, calculates Panjiva, a trade-data company.
根據貿易數據公司磐聚網的計算,美國防護性設備進口量在三月和六月間增加了兩倍。

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uncontrollable [,ʌnkən'trəuləbl]

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adj. 無法控制的;無法管束的;難以駕馭的

 
boost [bu:st]

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vt. 推進,提高,增加
n. 推進,增加

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fell [fel]

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動詞fall的過去式
n. 獸皮
v

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supply [sə'plai]

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n. 補給,供給,供應,貯備
vt. 補給,供

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protagonist [prəu'tægənist]

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n. 主演,主角,主唱者

 
pandemic [pæn'demik]

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adj. 全國流行的 n. (全國或全世界范圍流行的)疾

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domestic [də'mestik]

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adj. 國內的,家庭的,馴養的
n. 家仆,

 
resilience [ri'ziliəns]

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n. 適應力,彈性,收縮性

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available [ə'veiləbl]

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